New Research in The Lancet Planetary Health – Part 1 – CO2 is more than just a greenhouse gas

It’s been an exciting couple of weeks, with the recent publication of a couple articles in the latest issue of The Lancet Planetary Health, so I thought I’d put together a couple blog posts about the articles.

The first, “Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study“, is the product of more than a year of collaborative research across multiple institutions (IFPRI, Harvard, USDA, EPA, RTI, and CSIRO). In this study we tried to look at a wide range of climate change induced impacts on crop growth.

A lot of work that I’ve contributed to has looked at the impacts of shifting temperature and precipitation patterns on crop yields, and how changes in crop productivity can lead to changes in commodity prices, agricultural trade flows, consumer demand and food security. For example, Ignaciuk and Mason-D’Croz (2014), Nelson et al. (2014), and Wiebe et al. (2015) all of which focused primarily on assessing the impacts of changes in mean temperature and precipitation on crop productivity. In another recent study we looked at how changes in economic growth and climate change could impact the supply of nutrients. In this latest article, we tried to expand on this previous work to consider the role of atmospheric CO2 on crop growth and nutrient supply.

Changing CO2 concentration levels can have multiple effects on the environment, beyond its impact as a greenhouse gas. Varying levels of CO2 in the atmosphere has multiple effects on plant chemistry.

  • CO2 Fertilization CO2 is a critical input into plant photosynthesis, the biochemical process which plants use to convert sunlight into carbohydrates that serve as food for the plant, with Oxygen another key by-product. More CO2 (assuming there aren’t water and nutrient constraints), should lead to more photosynthesis, and more plant biomass. In theory, CO2 fertilization could help offset some of the negative yield impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation.
  • Shifting nutrient balance Greater availability of carbon can also change the nutrient balance in crops. More carbohydrates from photosynthesis dilutes the concentration of many micronutrients like iron and zinc. Changes in the carbon cycle can also impact the chemistry of building protein and vitamins, often contributing to a decline in the nutrient content of many crops.

Adding these additional impact pathways on crop productivity and nutritional quality, continues to show the climate change will have a negative impact on our food supply, not only by reducing crop yields, but also by reducing the nutritional quality of the foods we grow. Perversely, the regions most likely to be negatively impacted by these changes are also those regions least responsible for higher CO2 levels. These findings suggest that while we cannot ignore the productivity losses climate change may cause, the situation is more complicated than just a food supply (quantity) question. We need to also consider more broadly issues of food quality and nutrition.

Musing on the SDGs, R4D, and foresight work

I was asked to present to a class of bachelor students at the University of Utrecht on my experiences with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a development practitioner and academic. I got to share the stage with 3 very impressive presenters, and all of us came to a similar point that the challenge of the SDGs is how to operationalize them.

How do we go from where we are to where we want to be?

And of course, there are no easy answers. However, I think I did the students a disservice, by focusing so much on the problems we are confronting, such as

  • lack of information
  • how to define the goals, and then measure and prove progress toward them
  • how do we prioritize different important outcomes
  • how to build consensus among various actors in society with very different agendas, objectives, and perspectives on what is desirable
  • how to foster and coordinate collective action across scales from the household to the globe on a myriad of goals that can be at cross-purposes

All these challenges are real, and the task at hand as presented by the SDGs is an impossible one. However, we must not lose hope. Without ambitious dreams we don’t reach beyond what we already know. I think I did a disservice to the class by focusing so much on what is holding us back, and not highlighting that we are still making progress, even as we make mistakes, and that we are applying and improving methodologies that should enable us to continuously improve the effectiveness of international development. What follows are a few thoughts that I wished I had shared more explicitly with the class.

Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm
– Winston Churchill

While we must recognize that the development policies and interventions we have at our disposal are limited and imperfect, and that we don’t always know the full consequences of using them, we should also recognize that we are not without agency. We now have decades if not centuries of experience in trying to build and improve the world in which we live. Through these often ad hoc and uncoordinated actions we have learned a great deal, even as we may have created new problems while trying to resolve old ones. We have learned many things that generally work, and perhaps just as importantly we have learned a great many things that almost never work.

And while we still see incidences of truly catastrophic policies (e.g. Venezuela), even the most jaded analyst must recognize that humanity has made great leaps in tackling what was for most of our history our greatest threats: hunger, pestilence, and destitution. That we haven’t fully resolved these problems, or the fact that our solutions are proving to be unsustainable due to overuse of natural resources, should not detract from the fact that we have made incredible progress. This progress is evident not just by comparing changes over millennia, but also through changes observed after concentrated and coordinated efforts towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This should strengthen our resolve that progress is possible, even as it should humble us to recognize that it can be ephemeral and will almost certainly not be smooth. Progress is not self-sustaining, and it will require our continued attention and effort to see it continue.

The field of research for development is at its heart trying to document current and past efforts towards the greater goal of sustainable development. To collect, document, organize, and share our best understanding of the world, and how our actions impact and change it. It works to analyze past assumptions against evidence, to find misconceptions and correct them, and to share the lessons learned in the hope of inoculating us from repeating past mistakes.

My work has contributed to these efforts, by applying our current understanding of the macroeconomy to foresight. I have helped to build and improve computer simulation models that provide a framework to test our assumptions and biases in a transparent and systematic way. In conjunction with the the construction of scenarios of alternative futures, we can ask ourselves and others what would be the consequences of different events or actions, and test the interconnectivity of the complex socioeconomic, political, and environmental systems within which we act. These tools are illustrative and didactic as opposed to predictive. We cannot know the future, however, the doesn’t mean we can’t prepare for many different futures. These tools help to consider various ways in how the future could unfold, and whether our actions (policies, interventions, investments, etc.) are more, or less likely to be effective in achieving our desired outcomes. They suggest potential obstacles and challenges that we might not have originally considered, as well as suggesting potential positive and negative feedbacks, which could make problems more complicated to resolve.

We have applied these tools to help policymakers to better understand the potential consequences of their policies of interest, as well as highlight policies that look particularly beneficial or negative. This work has often been at the direct request of policymakers who themselves are more than aware of the complexity of the world and are looking for tools to help them better engage with complexity and uncertainty. The tools are helpful in reminding us that not all goods things go together, and that progress will not be panglossian. As we progress on some fronts, we may take steps back on others. Foresight methodologies and tools help give us a sense of the types and magnitude of tradeoffs we may have to make as we try to achieve the SDGs.

For example, efforts to prevent the conversion of land to agricultural purposes to prevent biodiversity loss and GHG emissions may make it more difficult to achieve the goal of zero hunger by reducing potential agricultural production, unless we layer additional interventions and investments to increase agricultural productivity. Of course, these subsequent investments may in fact be problematic for water quality and biodiversity if they involve heavy use of chemical inputs, and so on and so forth.

While these tools cannot fully account for all the connections and complexity in the world, and ultimately are themselves in constant need of questioning and improvement, they are still helpful. They help us to operationalize complexity in a transparent, systematic, and manageable way. In so doing, they improve our understanding of how our actions may have broad and unexpected implications. They push us away from purely linear thinking to gain a better appreciation for non-linear effects (i.e. network effects, vicious and virtuous cycles, etc.). They also encourage us to think of sustainable development as a process; to recognize we will need to constantly calibrate our efforts in response to unexpected consequences and events. All of which is valuable in the development of more holistic and robust policies that try to maximize positive outcomes while minimizing negative ones in an uncertain and constantly changing world.

It is also worth highlighting that the kind of system thinking encouraged by these tools does not require the use of advanced mathematical models. There are many ways to incorporate more holistic and systems thinking into policymaking, something that was quite evident from the very insightful questions that were raised by the class. In fact, I am heartened by the depth of some of the questions asked, as it suggests that we will continue plugging away at the great challenges confronting us.

Caminante – Greenbacks vs Red-, Blue-, Yellow-backs

Australia, shares a lot in common with the US (language, cultural linkages to England, similar law systems, a continental landmass, and pioneering history to name a few). However, the similarities can sometimes help to highlight the differences.

Maybe because I’m an economist one of the first things I’ve noticed is the currency. Again, there are a lot of similarities, starting with the name. Both the US and Australia call their currency the dollar, a name that derives from the Thaler, a common medieval European trade currency from Bohemia.

Thaler coin [picture from Wikipedia]

Both currencies are important international reserve currencies. The U.S. dollar is the world’s premier reserve currency and the most traded in the world. The Australian Dollar, however, is no slouch ranking as the 5th most traded currency.

Still there are some noticeable differences between the Australian Dollar and US dollar. First, US currency is exceptionally bland compared to almost all other countries, who use a much broader spectrum of colors to denominate their paper bills. Australian paper tender is quite lovely, ranging from yellow-green-turquoise, sunset orange, reds, blues, and purples for their 100s, 50s, 20s, 10s, and 5s respectively.

In addition to the obvious color differences, each of the bills is a slightly different length (high value bills are longer than lower value bills). The difference in sizes is primarily for the purpose of preventing a type of currency forgery where bills of lower denomination are washed and made to look like higher denominations, a problem that has been a problem in the past with the US dollar (e.g. Peruvian Counterfeiting Operation, Counterfeiting in Richmond VA, Woman turns $1 into $100s, etc. ). Varying the size of the bills additionally has the advantage that it makes it easier to distinguish dollar denominations by touch. Another difference between the Australian and US dollar is tactile. The US dollar is printed on a unique blend of plant fibers, which is roughly ¾ cotton and ¼ linen, giving the bills a crisp feel when brand new, and softening over time. The Australian dollar on the other hand is printed on plastic polymer fibers, which makes the bills feel a bit like wax paper. The plastic holds up to wear better than the cotton-linen blend and permits the inclusion of many new security measures to prevent currency forgery.

Another interesting difference is that Australian currency is gender neutral. I don’t know if this can be attributed to the fact that Australia is a commonwealth country, and technically speaking Queen Elizabeth is the head of state, but I find it very interesting given the recent discussion of putting a single female on the $10 or $20 bill. A discussion which in 2016 looked like was going to get Harriet Tubman on the $20, but now it looks like the whole thing might be shelved until a less misogynistic administration occupies the White House. In Australia, the current printing series has a woman on 1 side and a man on the other side of each bill, all the coins have Queen Elizabeth on them, making for a solid win for gender parity, at least from the perspective of printed/minted money.

So, about those coins. I don’t know if I am typical of US consumers, but I absolutely loath coins. They’re relatively worthless, I mean pennies and nickels actually costs more to make then they are worth. They weigh down your pockets, and they always seem to find a way to get lost in the sofa. They are a major inconvenience. You never have enough of them on you ever to buy something useful. I basically just end up stocking them in a jar, and once a year taking them to the bank to deposit or exchange into something more useful. I may be an outlier with my distaste of coins, but I suspect I’m not too much of an outlier given that there are machines that people pay to use to convert coins into “real money”.

Coinstar machine, will happily take your money to convert coins into bills

Australian coins are a bit more useful than US coins, having coins worth $2, $1, and 50₵, 20₵, 10₵, and 5₵ that can be part of smaller transactions. Australians sensibly got rid of the 1₵ and 2₵ coins in the 1990s, when it became evident they cost more to mint than they were worth. While Australian coins are nominally more useful, they collectively weigh a lot more than coins in the US. And interestingly enough the size of the coin varies parabolically with value with the $2 coin smaller than the $1 coin, which itself is smaller than the massive 50₵ coin, which is the largest coin, with the 20₵, 10₵, and 5₵ coins getting progressively smaller. The dollar coins are a golden color whereas the cent coins are silver. Another oddity is that all the coins are circular except for the 50₵, which in addition to being massive is a dodecagon (12-sided polygon).

In the end, I don’t think the slight increase in usefulness of the coins will change my opinion about coins. I think I will still prefer occasionally paying a 10₵ surcharge to pay for things electronically, but who knows maybe I’ll end up investing in a coin purse like when I was living in Bolivia and Europe.

Caminante – Thanks DC, it’s been great.

Despite not quite lasting a decade in DC, it is the longest I’ve lived anywhere since leaving my parent’s home. I came with the goal of getting my Master’s degree in International Development. I was fresh off more than 3 years with the Peace Corps in Bolivia, and I knew I had a lot to learn, and wanted to learn it quickly so I could return to Latin America. There’s a saying about the plans of mice and men, or something like that. I had never intended to make DC my home, but that is definitely what it became.


I really like DC as a city. From its wide avenues, to its tree covered Georgian and Victorian neighborhoods, to the many hidden cultural, historical, and culinary gems, to yes, the museums. DC is a great city to live in. When I arrived, I figured I wasn’t going to stay long in DC, and so, I went all out and tried to explore DC and the surrounding areas to the fullest. I set myself the goal of exploring some new aspect of the city each week, and amazingly enough more than 9 years later I didn’t get to all the places I wanted to see. I still want to visit the National Museum of Women in the Arts, the Kenilworth Aquatic Gardens, the city boundary posts, Great Falls, and Assateague Island. Luckily, I will be coming back from time to time, so my exploration of this great city will slow down but won’t necessarily end.

To try to list, let alone, describe all the places that I’ve visited during my time in the city would be too exhausting, but if you are interested I’ve kept a decent record on Trip (formerly GogoBot):

I also made a more curated list of some of the off-the-beat-track attractions for those who’ve already done the main attractions:

As the above lists can attest to, there are a lot of amazing things to do and see in DC; it is a city that won’t disappoint the visitor. It is home to some of the country’s best and most egalitarian museums, most of which are free to the public, even if their opening hours cater more to the tourist than to the local. But, being a great tourist destination doesn’t on its own make a city a great place to live. That instead is created by its neighborhoods, the energy of the people who inhabit the city, and the events that shape and mold them all into communities.

Collectively DC can give off a younger sibling vibe, often reacting a bit too defensively when being compared to New York, which is a shame. New York is undoubtedly one of the world’s great cities. However, DC is great in its own right, and brings with it its own unique blend of culture and history.

The fact DC has become a world class city is something of a historical surprise. It was founded at the confluence of the Potomac and Anacostia rivers, strategically encompassing the two river port towns of Georgetown and Alexandria (no longer a part of DC thanks to conflicts around slavery, and issues of political representation, a problem current residents continue to struggle with. For more info check out WETA’s history Blog post on Retrocession). However, it was envisioned by the founding fathers to be a small urban area that would exist only to be the seat of government. They desired a new city sufficiently distant from the more important colonial urban centers of Philadelphia, Boston, and New York, to help avoid elite capture. While not stated as such, DC was to be the U.S.’s first colony, with direct rule not allowed to city residents, in sharp contrast to the democratic principles on which the country was founded. To be fair, this was only one of many hypocrisies to be found in the establishment of the country and certainly not the most egregious (ahem slavery). Nevertheless, DC continues to be treated like a colony, with congress often interfering in the administration of the city in opposition to the desires of city residents, a sentiment voiced through DC’s license plates playing on the revolutionary mantra “No Taxation without Representation”

For the first half century of its existence, DC more or less lived out the vision of the founding fathers, as it continued to be a backwater, whose only national significance was that it hosted the federal government. DC’s importance as a major urban and economic center really began during the Civil War. Managing the war machine necessary to win the war required the federal government to dramatically expanded its size and scope, bringing thousands of new residents to the city, many of which stayed after the conclusion of the war. DC was also a popular destination for African Americans escaping from slavery and violence in the south. Once expanded from its initial backwater state, DC would continue to grow in fits and spurts. Today, DC is definitely in a new expansionary period, with cranes across the city highlighting the rapid expansion, renovation, and renewal, as can be shown with DC ranking 6th in the country for most construction cranes.

All vibrant cities are transient, as new influxes of people bring new ideas and energy, fueling the creativity and excitement that gives the city life. DC, I think punches above its weight (city population is less than 700K, total metro area is around 5 million) in large part because it is more transient than most cities. DC in addition to being a capital is a university town, or perhaps better to say a town of universities. DC is home to many fine institutions of higher learning including Georgetown, American University, George Washington University, Catholic University, as well as branches of a great many others. Combined with the ebb and flow of national and international politics there is an almost constant renewal of the city as waves of new young professionals try to conquer DC (#7 on Forbes List of Best Cities for Young Professionals). And as each new wave recedes it make room for the next. It is remarkable, because in certain neighborhoods of DC it can be difficult to find any born and raised Washingtonians. This transience is both exhilarating and exhausting. The constant opportunity to meet new people, make new friends from all over the country and world is great. Although it is also pared with the knowledge that if you stay long enough you will end up saying goodbye to many of these friends as they are pulled out of DC. Working in the international field, I probably have felt this more than the average Washingtonian, but I suspect that many of my fellow residents have felt this bittersweet experience. During my time in DC, I have transitioned through at least 3 different friend cohorts, as I transitioned from friends from peace corps and grad school to more friends from work. Each group of friends have made a major impact on my way of experiencing the city and my life in general. The rest of this post will be a (hopefully) brief narrative of these transitions with plenty of thanks for the many great friends and colleagues who have made my time in DC so special.


In the summer of 2008, I arrived in DC to a pre-formed group of friends, with many of my friends from Peace Corps already living in the city, which made for a quick social acclimation. Through them (in particularly thanks to Geoff and Jenny) I got to know the Glover Park area, and to a lesser extent Southwest Waterfront (Natasha), and Columbia Heights. To be close to school I rented a room in a large house in DuPont Circle. With graduate studies taking up a lot of my time, my exploration of the city in the first two years was almost entirely focused on the more affluent NW quadrant of the city with only brief explorations to the other 3 quadrants.

2008 was a big year for me personally in that I finished Peace Corps, moved to DC, and started grad school at SAIS. It was a year of transition not only for me, but for the country and city. 2008 saw the election of Barack Obama to the presidency, and I got to witness this historical event from the very center of the nation’s capital. On November 4, 2008, DC exploded in the kind of city-wide celebration usually reserved for winning a World Cup. The excitement, and effervescent optimism was palpable throughout the city, as people believed they were witnessing a historically inflection point with the election of the country’s first African American president. A few months later, on January 20, 2009 in the freezing cold, standing alongside 1.8 million other people, I got to listen to Obama’s first inaugural address. There were so many people on the mall that day that I was closer to the Lincoln Memorial than I was to the capital. No bother, with big screen TVs and speakers I was more than able to follow along.

Lauren, Geoff, and Jenny in the cold

Jenny and me

Near the Washington Monument

The excitement from this election would continue to be felt through 2009, although they would be tempered by the very somber economic situation the country was in (Great Recession), the bruising political battles in passing the Affordable Care act, and the generally, unrealistic expectations of liberal supporters inspired by Obama’s electrifying election campaign. Returning to my personal narrative, I continued working through my graduate studies, while juggling several part time jobs, and maintaining a long-distance relationship, which would culminate in marriage to my wonderful wife Ximena in May 2009 (the courtship and wedding, are not so much a part of my DC story as they are of my Bolivian stories, but no worries Ximena will be making her appearance in this narrative a bit later).

This would be the first of two weddings, sandwiching my second year of grad school. To get a leg up on the ridiculously long visa process, we decided to tie the knot legally, so Ximena could join me in the states after graduating. I knew the US immigration system was broken, but until going through the visa process, I didn’t realize what a complete asinine cluster f&%# it truly was. The experience of getting Ximena’s visa falls in sharp contrast with the ease of immigrating to Australia. I won’t go much into the details now, but I may dedicate a whole post comparing the two experiences. Needless to say, my experience with the visa process in the US was bumpy.

The rest of 2009 and the first half of 2010 was really a build up to the next chapter of my DC experience. In May 2010, I graduated from SAIS, finishing up 2 fantastic years of learning, and where I got to meet many incredible and impressive people.

While 2010, was not as bad economically as 2009, it was still not a great time to be looking for work while having a nice pile of student loans to start paying off. So, I didn’t have a lot of time to take in this achievement as I needed to find a job to start paying off student loans. But before I could start the job search in earnest, it was time to return to Bolivia for the religious wedding ceremony.

The idea originally had been to return to DC with Ximena, but US immigration didn’t cooperate, and I returned to DC to find a job while we crawled through the last stages. During these months of semi-unemployment, I lived a fairly nomadic life couch surfing with various friends, while I tried to find a job that would allow me to get my life started in DC.

Wait, life in DC? Weren’t you heading back to Latin America?

Well…yeah, about that, a mountain of student debts denominated in US$ makes it pretty hard to take on many entry-level positions in the development field abroad. While I looked at some interesting opportunities in Peru and Haiti, the financial reality was that I needed to stick around at least a couple years more to bring down my student loans to a more manageable level.

During this nomadic interlude, I stayed all over the greater DC area spending time in Southwest Waterfront (thanks Natasha), Mt. Vernon (thanks Anita), Columbia Heights (thanks Elke), Reston (thanks Carrie), and Mt. Rainier (thanks Samantha). Samantha in particular deserves a giant thank you, having not only let me share her home with her son, but helped me with a job opportunity. I wouldn’t stay long at that first job, as a series of seemingly random connections would set me on course to join IFPRI, but at the time it felt very much like a life-line.

Cohabitation, acclimation, and the slow slide to adulthood

By the end of 2010, this transition phase ended. I had joined IFPRI where I would work until just a couple weeks ago. Ximena and I had found an apartment in Capitol Hill in NE DC, and were finally living together. While it would be a lie to say that nothing changed, it is fair to say that over the next couple years we settled into Capitol Hill, expanding my knowledge of DC greatly by exploring the NE and SE quadrants of the city. Where once DuPont Circle had been my load star, now Eastern Market, H St. and Union Station were my main points of reference.

Capitol on my walk home from work

Mural in Capitol Hill

Jefferson Monument during the Cherry Blossom Festival

The national mall felt like our backyard, and we would explore DC’s museums on a pretty regular basis. We also started getting our first visitors, giving us the opportunity to share DC with family and friends. It was also during this time, where I started to experience firsthand the transience of DC, as friends I had made in grad school, as well as peace corps, started to leave, finding new opportunities and challenges outside of DC. It took some time to absorb these changes, but I started noticing more and more that my social circles had shifted geographical to Northeast (shout out to Carrie, Steve, and Animal) and Southeast DC (hey hey Shahnila, Estefania and Matt) and had a much more of an IFPRI-flavor.

Nevertheless, in many ways the most interesting milestones during these years are Ximena’s to tell and not mine. But getting to see her succeed in each new stage was extremely gratifying, as I witnessed her work hard to culturally acclimate to DC, learn English, become a U.S. citizen, pursue a master’s degree, and restart her career as an international tourism consultant, all while building a completely new set of friends. She consistently amazes me with her strength of character, and willingness to take on each new challenge. I am grateful to her, not only that she agreed to share her life with me, but that she was willing to uproot her own life, leaving behind family, friends, and everything that she knew. That was and is a huge risk, and I am thankful every day, that she was willing to take a bet on us.

How do you celebrate becoming a US citizen? By doing the most american thing possible eating a corn dog

There were a couple close calls with us leaving DC, but by the end of 2015, I had paid off my student loans and it felt like we were going to stick around for a while, and we made the momentous decision to start looking to buy a place. Hindsight 20/20, if we had known then that only a couple more years I’d be writing this while drinking a glass of wine overlooking a pool in Brisbane, Australia, we wouldn’t have made that decision. Nevertheless, it felt like the right thing to do, and certainly continued our slow progression to full adulthood (not that we were going through a checklist or anything 😉). Anyway 2016 was another one of those important years that presage another period of transition. I followed up a couple of major publications in 2015 (ahem Lancet, thanks Marco), with my first 1st authored paper in Environmental Modeling Software. We bought a very nice 2-bedroom apartment near the Trinidad neighborhood, pushing our center of gravity a bit further from the center of the city, and in so doing we really became familiar with new parts of NE DC we hadn’t had a chance to explore previously. With the extra room we were able to host friends and family more comfortably.

2016, was also the first U.S. election year in which Ximena could participate. Ximena, had been a permanent resident in 2012, and while we went back to the mall to see Obama’s second inaugural address, she didn’t get to participate in the democratic process. In 2016, she was raring to go, and we were pretty excited to vote for Hilary Clinton, and to bear witness to another historic event. Sadly, things didn’t quite go the way we hoped. And to me election night and the day after was polar opposite effect 2008, not only in the whiplash like change from Obama to Trump, but in the city’s reaction. In 2008, the city was electrified, energized, and effusive (how’s that for alliteration). And 2016 election night, was stunned, horrified silence. If I were pressed to describe the feeling of the city, I’d say the city was borderline suicidal. Surprises though didn’t end on election night, as I got contacted by a couple of very interesting job opportunities, that would potentially pull us out of DC’s gravitational pull, and ultimately one of the offers did just that. Convincing us that while we love DC and our time in DC, it was time to flip the page to a new chapter and explore a whole new part of the world.

My hope is that we will have a great time living and experiencing Brisbane, and all that Australia has to offer. Still, I think that deep down in our hearts, we will always have some DC in us. DC was our first home as a married couple and it is the home of so many of our dearest friends. Part of me hopes that in the twists and turns of life, we will have an opportunity to return once more to the city, and get to experience it anew, once it has itself been changes and reshaped behind the many waves of new residents who will have come in our wake. But if that doesn’t occur, we will definitely have very fond memories of our time in this great city.

Caminante – Intro

It has been too long since I last wrote a blog post, and it seems like a move across the globe to Australia is a good reason to try to put some thoughts down. I wish I could say that I will be sufficiently disciplined to keep up a regular blog output, but I am not a strong believer in making unrealistic new year resolutions, so instead I am going to commit to a short series of blog posts on this major transition, and if the habit sticks great, and if not, hopefully I can manage a bit more blogging activity in 2018.

I chose the title Caminante as the title of this series of posts in honor of one of my favorite poems “Caminante, no hay camino” by Antonio Machado.

Caminante, no hay camino Wayfarer, there is no set path
Caminante, son tus huellas
el camino y nada más;
Caminante, no hay camino,
se hace camino al andar.
Al andar se hace el camino,
y al volver la vista atrás
se ve la senda que nunca
se ha de volver a pisar.
Caminante no hay camino
sino estelas en la mar.
Wayfarer, your footprints are
the path and nothing more;
Wayfarer, there is no set path,
the path is made on the move.
Walking one sets the path,
and turning one’s sight backwards
to see the path you never
will set foot upon again.
Wayfarer, there is no set path
only wake-trails in the sea.

I have always felt nomadic at heart, and I suspect that this is why this poem calls to me. As I am soon to be moving once more, and blazing a new trail in a new continent, it seems like an apt title for this series of blog posts. My initial thoughts is that this series of blog posts will end up consisting of 3-6 posts, with a couple reflecting on my time in DC, and then a few more forward looking posts on my initial experiences in Australia. But it may end up longer once I get into writing.


New journal article in The Lancet: Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Kind of crazy to think that I have had the opportunity to work on a project that got published in The Lancet. I knew the journal had extremely high visibility and impact, but intellectually knowing this and actually experiencing it are 2 different things. The journal article was released by Lancet last night and it is already getting major attention, with an article in the Guardian, an article on GIZMODO, and requests from several newspapers to talk about our findings.

While it took a lot of work and time to get the article through through the peer review process, it was a fun experience on the whole. It was great getting to collaborate with colleagues, such as Marco Springmann, at the University of Oxford to explore the effects of climate change on diets, and health. Hopefully, this is just the start of several future collaborations, which will allow us to explore the intersections of agriculture, trade, diet, and health. It is kind of crazy to think that this whole endeavor started almost 2 years ago when I met Marco in an IMPACT model training workshop I led in Cali, Colombia.

The abstract of the article is available for free at The Lancet:

Unfortunately, it looks like the full article requires a subscription to read. I am looking at what options we have for sharing the article. In the mean time, you can check out this blog post I made on the IFPRI Research blog summarizing some of the work, as well as the press release written by my colleagues at Oxford.


Loss of a literaty icon

(SUD FOTO SERGIO SIANO)I was sadden to find out that my favorite author Umberto Eco passed away recently. Several of his books are among my favorites including Baudolino, Foucault’s Pendulum, The Name of the Rose, and How to travel with a salmon and other essays.

His books were often dense with symbolism, and could read almost like a game, where he dared you to peal back all of the layers. But throughout there was a sense of self-effacement, and joy with the games you can play with words that avoided ever feeling pretentious.

The economist wrote a nice joint obituary for Umberto Eco and Harper Lee who also recently passed away.